My prediction? Over the next year or so as various touch-tablet devices are launched, we're going to see a massive shift away from notebook and netbook computers for the general consumer. The tablet lends itself to four areas of use: Web (including Internet-centric apps like weather, news, maps, etc.), Media (music and video), Gaming (from solitaire to Farmville-like games) and Communication (email, social networking, IM, etc.). Which is what 99% of people want their computers for anyways.

It's great to see Russell write a bunch of his thoughts down about tablets. Yes, he has an iPad, but he's actually talking about the "end of WIMP" (Windows Icon Mouse Pointer - about which you should go read his whole other piece).

This one quote I've pulled out echoes my thinking, although I actually think Gaming is going to evolve to way beyond Farmville-like experiences very quickly.

The tablet (and touch interfaces) are going to serve 99% of what people want to do with their computers. It will be very interesting to see the progress throughout this year as other non-Apple tablets come on to the market.

I see web-native apps being a major area of growth for two reasons.

One reason is that the app ecosystems on other platforms are not nearly as mature as the Apple one. That is, it's frickin' hard to make money on platforms other than Apple's at the moment.

The second is that the browser component that ships with the other platforms is at the very least on par with the iPad's browser, meaning it is the common denominator across platforms.

Expect this to affect desktop websites as well - those websites that are accessed under some of the scenarios that Russell describes will evolve to match the expectations of a touch interface. Well, at least the smart ones will :P