The much noted convergence of data and voice networks really amounts to a hostile takeover of communication by the information technology sector. The Internet did not get invented to displace the PSTN, but continuous improvement makes this outcome inevitable. The info tech czars like Bill Gates and Andy Grove are loathe to explicitly challenge the telecom incumbents, but the information technology solutions will replace not converge with the traditional telephone networks. The business models of the telephone incumbents work only to the extent the regulated biosphere does not get infiltrated by unregulated infoservices. The telecom service versus info service dichotomy dissolved with the arrival of VoIP. Game over. The PSTN remains invulnerable to innovation while the platforms leveraged by the info tech industry get faster and cheaper. The next wave is already underway with the computing power of PC's incorporated into consumer electronics of various form factors. Consider the emerging battle between Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo's voice enabled multiplayer games. Daniel Berninger: End of Telecom
Greg forwarded me this essay. Read the whole thing - every paragraph describes and explains another nail in the coffin of traditional telecom and the PSTN. And in the last paragraph, Dan dangles a carrot: replacing slow-growth (3%) traditional telecom, with the annual 30% growth of the tech industry. Great stuff (and yes, too bad it's not a blog -- how do I remember to go back?). Looks like Telepocalypse has some competition -- or maybe make Dan a guest blogger?
I'm going to pull out some more quotes -- they're all great soundbites. Bring on the newspaper headlines:
- "The collective reliability of several best effort services starts to match the reliability of plain old telephone service."
- "The sale of supposedly profitable supposedly non-strategic wireline and directory assets amounts to little more than burning the furniture to keep warm."
- "The Bell System not only did not expand employment over the last twenty years, it served as a job destruction machine"