Infrastructure calibration scale for blockchains

Posted by Venkatesh Rao to the Summer of Protocols forum, considering what the future infrastructure scale of blockchains are.

1. Blockchains are like time-travel networks. Science fiction that can’t actually work with known tech. (0%)

2. Blockchains are like space tech. Only a tiny fraction of humans will be involved but everyone will use satellite based comms and weather and be spectators (1%)

3. Blockchains are like railroads. Dominated by freight (backbone transactions), and passenger travel will be a loss-making subsidized public good that will be some fraction of traffic.(20%?)

4. Blockchains are like renewable energy grids. Some fraction of property users will install solar or wind, or BTM batteries, and have net metering relations with grid. Rest won’t see any difference in electricity usage. (30%)

5. Blockchains are like social media. Everyone will use a little, some users will be “very onchain” similar to “very online” (1-9-90 rule, participation inequality)

6. Blockchains are like credit card networks. Everyone has a credit card past some level of standard of living, same group will have crypto wallets/ids etc. (~80% at mature adoption)

7. Blockchains are like smart phone networks. Everyone except the most desperately poor will eventually be onchain (99%)